The Reaction of the Risk-Averse to the Speed of Legal Change
This is the graphic of that displays the preference that risk-averse
individuals have for the the incremental change of common law. Unanticipated
changes of the law are risks that individuals seek to avoid. Common law produces
the change by virtue of small steps taken by courts who evolve the law as a
side-product of resolving disputes. Civil law systems change the law by the
legislature, which only engages the change if the social benefit outweighs the
cost of its action. As a result, civil law changes less frequently but by larger
increments.

This graphic shows how risk averse individuals prefer dividing a given change
over smaller increments. The expected gain due to the legal change is normalized
to 1 (100%) and is on the vertical Z-axis which measures the preference of individuals by
asking what certain fraction of that gain they would consider equivalent to the
uncertain gain. This is the notion of "certainty equivalent."
Obviously the riskier the gamble and the more risk-averse the individual, the
smaller a fraction does certainty-equivalent becomes. (Risk-preferring
individuals would place a premium on the gamble, but ignore them as they are
not representative.) Thus, as risk-aversion increases, individuals consider the
uncertain gain equivalent to a smaller certain amount.
The point of the graphic is that whatever individuals risk-aversion may be,
they will always prefer a given legal change occurring over more periods, more
gradually, compared to the same change happening at once.
The "Periods" axis indicates the intervals over which legal change
occurs. The range of
the graph is from the change occurring over a single period (1) to occurring over 10
periods. Given an individual's level of risk aversion, dividing the legal change
over more periods is always preferable (increases the certainty equivalent),
particularly in the first periods and particularly when risk aversion is more
pronounced. The risk aversion depicted in the graph is "constant relative
risk aversion" and the coefficient of risk aversion ranges from .1 to 4.
See Georgakopoulos, Predictability and Legal Evolution.
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